This year’s Maharashtra Assembly elections are crucial for the survival of all major political parties, particularly the BJP, the Congress, and their respective leaders.
With a population of over 13 crore, the stakes are high. The political landscape has changed significantly in recent years, with events that have shaken the foundations of parliamentary democracy and the Constitution.
Two key regional parties, Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena and Sharad Pawar’s Nationalist Congress Party were weakened ahead of the Lok Sabha elections. BJP engineered defections from both parties, attracting dissatisfied leaders and MLAs, which impacted the election results.
The BJP, which had previously enjoyed a dominant position, saw its strength diminish, winning only nine seats in the Lok Sabha elections, while the Congress surprisingly secured 13 seats, making a notable comeback. These results have forced the current Shinde-Phadnavis-Ajit Pawar government to rethink its strategy for the upcoming Assembly elections.
In response to the electoral challenges, the government has launched several schemes to garner public support. One of the key initiatives is the “Laadki Bahin Yojana”, which provides financial aid of Rs 1,500 per month to 2.5 crore women in Maharashtra. Despite such welfare schemes, the government still faces significant hurdles in this election.
The Grand Alliance, or Mahayuti, which includes the BJP, is grappling with several issues. One of the main challenges is managing seat-sharing among coalition partners, especially after the BJP’s poor showing in the Lok Sabha elections.
The Shinde faction of Shiv Sena has grown stronger and there’s been a wave of defections, with some members of Ajit Pawar’s NCP faction returning to the fold. Discontent among party members who were denied tickets for assembly seats has led to internal rebellions.
This dissatisfaction has affected not just the BJP, but also the Ajit Pawar faction, with many disgruntled members rejoining the original Shiv Sena and NCP led Uddhav Thackeray and Sharad Pawar respectively.
At the same time, the BJP and its allies are facing a backlash from loyalists of both Uddhav Thackeray and Sharad Pawar. Many supporters did not approve of Eknath Shinde’s departure from Shiv Sena or Ajit Pawar’s defection from NCP. This has given the Opposition coalition, the Mahavikas Aghadi, an opportunity to present itself as more stable and development-oriented alternative, compared to the Mahayuti.
One of the key strategies of the opposition is to highlight how the BJP has failed to address key social and economic issues. Reservation policies, especially for the Maratha, OBC, and Dhangar communities, have become a major issue in the state.
The demand for Maratha reservations from the OBC quota and separate reservations for the Maratha community have intensified political tensions. The BJP’s handling of the issue has led to a split in its OBC voter base, benefiting the Opposition. Reservation-related anger, especially concerning Dhangar and tribal reservations, remains a flashpoint in this election.
Despite the BJP’s setback in the Lok Sabha elections, the State Assembly election dynamics are different. Many smaller parties have entered the fray, making it difficult to predict how votes will be split across constituencies. The Mahavikas Aghadi, led by Sharad Pawar, Uddhav Thackeray and Rahul Gandhi, is looking to capitalise on the public discontent by projecting themselves as champions of development, while accusing the BJP of mishandling key issues.
Eknath Shinde, who has served as Chief Minister for the past two years, has managed to attract a portion of Shiv Sena’s traditional voter base, but there is uncertainty about whether this support will hold in the assembly elections.
Experts believe there is growing resentment among voters about the political manoeuvring that has taken place over the past five years, especially within the BJP. The anger from traditional BJP voters, combined with unrest in the Maratha community over reservation issues, could influence the election outcome.
It will be crucial to see how the Grand Alliance navigates these challenges and whether it can maintain its position in the upcoming assembly elections.