As Maharashtra prepares to cast its votes on November 20, the question on everyone’s mind is: Who will emerge victorious in the State assembly elections? With political stakes at their highest, every citizen, every analyst, and every politician in Maharashtra is eagerly speculating on the outcome. The air is thick with uncertainty, and the answers to pressing questions, such as the fate of Marathwada, Vidarbha, and Mumbai remain elusive. While some predict a resurgence of the BJP-led Mahayuti alliance, others believe the Mahavikas Aghadi coalition could still secure a win, despite an intensely competitive environment.
The stage is set for a high-stakes contest between the two major alliances: the Mahayuti , comprising the BJP, Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena faction and Ajit Pawar’s Nationalist Congress Party and the Maha Vikas Aghadi , a coalition formed by the Congress, NCP (under Sharad Pawar), and the Uddhav Thackeray faction of Shiv Sena. A few months ago, the success of the Mahavikas Aghadi in the Lok Sabha elections had led many to believe that the same alliance would repeat its victory in the assembly polls. However, recent exit polls paint a different picture. The BJP-led Mahayuti seems to have gained considerable ground, with predictions hinting at a possible comeback.
What makes this election particularly unpredictable is the emergence of numerous smaller parties and independent candidates, all vying for a share of the vote. As the results draw nearer, analysts suggest that post-election negotiations could result in a new alignment of power, where smaller parties play a pivotal role in forming the next government. Political commentators have also highlighted the crucial role of the Maratha community in this election, with their frustrations particularly regarding the demand for reservation likely to influence their voting behaviour.
Another key aspect of this election has been the pre-election largesse offered by the Mahayuti coalition. Ahead of the vote, the government has rolled out a series of welfare schemes, including free food grains, loan waivers, and the much-publicised “Ladki Bahin” scheme, which provides financial aid to women. These measures are seen as a direct appeal to the electorate, aimed at addressing growing discontent and ensuring the support of key voter segments. Yet, despite these efforts, it’s evident that the electorate remains divided, with many voters unsure of which party or alliance to support.
One of the defining features of this election is the sheer number of effective candidates contesting in each constituency – six to seven in many cases. This creates a highly fragmented political environment, where no party or alliance can claim a clear mandate. The BJP, in particular, has faced internal tensions, with factions such as those led by Udayanraje Bhosale and Radhakrishna Vikhe Patil seeking to consolidate Maratha support. In response, the BJP has strategically fielded Maratha candidates, hoping to win over the community, which has been at the center of Maharashtra’s political discourse for years due to the ongoing demand for reservation.
However, this strategy has not gone unchallenged. The Mahavikas Aghadi is making a concerted effort to unite the OBCs and the Marathas, hoping to tap into the same voter base. The presence of leaders like Sharad Pawar, who enjoys significant influence over the Maratha community, poses a formidable challenge for the BJP’s Maratha outreach. At the same time, the BJP’s broader strategy of integrating the OBC vote could also reshape the political dynamics in key constituencies.
Additionally, several critical issues such as the struggles of farmers in the state, particularly those who cultivate soybeans, sugarcane, cotton, and onions have found their way to the political agenda. The condition of farmers, many of whom are dealing with rising debts and crop failures, could weigh heavily on the minds of voters. These issues, coupled with ongoing caste-based tensions between Marathas and OBCs, will likely play a significant role in determining the outcome.
The election is further complicated by the sheer scale of money involved. The Election Commission has seized crores of rupees in unaccounted funds, revealing the deep pockets of political operatives in the state. This raises concerns about the influence of money in the electoral process, and whether it will sway the voters’ choices. Analysts fear that, with so much at stake, the focus of the ruling parties could shift away from pressing issues like inflation, unemployment, healthcare, and infrastructure, towards an all-consuming battle for electoral victory.Looking ahead, the political landscape in Maharashtra is in flux. No one can say with certainty which party or coalition will claim victory.