Recently, India’s one of the major textile companies, Raymond’s chairman & managing director Gautam Singhania said that the company received a “huge number of inquiries” from global firms amid the Bangladesh crisis and the textiles and apparel giant was all set for this opportunity.
When asked if he would shift some of his garment business from Bangladesh to India, Singhania “hoped so”. This shows the signalling of big change in Indo-Bangladesh relations, which have been badly hit since the unceremonious exit of its PM, Sheikh Hasina Wajed on August 5.
Since then the new interim government headed by Nobel Laureate Muhammad Yunus, which has been making anti-India remarks, is unwarranted. What Sheikh Hasina has done in her country is Bangladesh’s internal matter. India has no role to play in Hasina’s dictatorial style of functioning.
Bangladesh has had a history of instability, with the military playing a direct role in the country’s politics, just like India’s western neighbour, Pakistan. Military-backed governments on both sides have deep affinity with China, which is India’s main adversary. Sheikh Hasina on the other side, had stood up to Chinese pressure and played a crucial role in curbing separatist movements in India’s north-eastern States, notably through actions against insurgent groups like the United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA) and the National Socialist Council of Nagaland (NSCN), which had operated from bases within Bangladesh.
These efforts culminated in notable peace agreements, including the ULFA Peace Accord in 2023. In fact, Indian intelligence reports have stated China’s involvement in supporting the militant organisations fomenting trouble in the North East.
In contrast, the main opposition party BNP has historically leaned toward Pakistan. Tarique Rahman, the acting chief of the Bangladesh National Party (BNP), is allegedly having ties with Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI). Reports suggest that the recent political upheaval in Bangladesh may have been influenced by covert support from both Pakistan and China.
So, India had to lean more towards the Hasina government. Also because it was India which supported her father, Sheikh Mujibur Rahman’s struggle to carve out Bangladesh from East Pakistan, due to the suppression of the rights of Bengali Muslims, by the Punjabi Muslim-dominated leadership in the erstwhile West Pakistan.
India has provided Bangladesh with 8 billion US dollars in loans over the last eight years to help expand infrastructure. These loans have been used for projects in the areas of roads, railways, irrigation, shipping, and ports.
Indian companies have invested in Bangladesh in a variety of sectors, including edible oil, power, infrastructure, fast-moving consumer goods, and automobiles. In the financial year 2022-23, trade between the two countries was 15.9 billion US dollars. But, the continuous poking by Yunus’ administration will do more damage to Bangladesh’s economy than to India.
Bangladesh depends heavily on India for its supply of rice, wheat, onion, ginger, garlic, sugar, cotton, cereals, iron and steel, refined petroleum, electronic equipment, and plastics. The 47bn US dollar (exports) garments industry relies on India for the supply of raw cotton. It should know that deterioration of relations with India will immediately result in a decline in exports, a reduction in GDP, higher inflation, and a loss of jobs. Thus, Bangladesh cannot afford to break its ties with India.
However, India has to maintain cordial relations with the new establishment, despite the animosity. Bangladesh is vital to ensuring stability and security in northeast India and in the Bay of Bengal. Bangladesh’s strategic importance in the eastern subcontinent hinges on its proximity to China, its frontier with Myanmar, the separation of mainland and northeast India, and its maritime territory in the Bay of Bengal.
Indian politicians also have to shed their anti-Bangladesh rhetoric that gets prominence during elections. We are passing through delicate times. Every step taken by India regarding its neighbourhood, has to be measured. Bangladesh also should understand the importance for its survival. As it is said, ‘it takes two to tango’. This animosity of Bangladesh towards India is unwarranted.