As Karnataka’s in the last lap of electioneering, comes another shocker. The 21st edition of the world press freedom index by Reports Without Borders (RSF) brought bad news. India slipped to 161st rank 11 ranks below 2022 status.
Violence against journalists, political partisan media and concentration of media ownership- interrogates the very idea of Indian democracy. In South East Asia we stand with Bangladesh, Pakistan and Afghanistan after almost a decade of BJP dominance. What a disgrace for the world’s largest democracy!
It is at this time in history that the elections are held for the Southern state of Karnataka. Nine states including MP, Rajasthan, Telangana & Chhattisgarh and four smaller states from North East shall face elections this year before the 2024 Lok-Sabha elections, where the magical prowess of the PM in electioneering shall be again put to test.
Karnataka elections are not about Karnataka. It is more about the elections to follow in other states before the national elections. Telangana is a southern bastion opposition BJP is attempting to breach. The 2008, 2013 and 2018 elections to the Karnataka assembly have demonstrated that the state assembly elections have no major impact on the national elections that followed next year.
With only 28 seats Karnataka can give no clear picture for 2024. Being a mainland state, it could provide a measuring rod of public anger against double engine government. MP, Rajasthan, Telangana and Chhattisgarh state elections of 2018 also showed that three months later there is no overhanging of local issues over national politics.
With a divided opposition, there is a belief that race for 2024 is a forgone conclusion and Karnataka does not matter. It is said, Karnataka elections would be decided by the popularity and stature of Siddaramaiah and DV Shivakumar independent of the popularity of Rahul Gandhi. Karnataka in any case has been unkind to incumbents since 1983.
Actual Power resides from the Hindi heartland. Why so much importance to Karnataka?
The government of Karnataka referred to as the “40% Sarkara” due to it being totally corrupt faces a huge anti-incumbency. The opposition Congress has the momentum and has put the ruling party on the defensive. From development and caste it has gone back to ‘Jai Bajrangbali’.
A defeat of the ruling party shall certainly provide a physiological advantage to the opposition. It is believed that the PM who continues to be the most popular politician in the country has the magic to lift sagging party fortunes at the 11th hour like he did in Gujarat in 2017. Himachal Pradesh was a small state which punctured the myth of invincibility. If Karnataka can keep pace with HP that could certainly shatter it, giving a advantage for the opposition in the 2023 state elections, which could certainly provide a further fillip for 2024 national elections.
The opposition Congress desperately needs the moral booster of Karnataka. It could galvanize the party in the Hindi heartland later this year where it is in direct context with the ruling party. It can also provide a multiplier effect, making it the fulcrum of opposition unity
For the ruling party which has footprint in almost 21 states a defeat may not matter much except, that it would hurt the invincible image of the miracle man which could also disrupt the smooth ride of 2024, but a victory for the ruling party would bring back the aura of dominant and for the opposition the battle for 2024 would be over in 2023 itself. A further demoralized Congress would not be in a position to handle the 2023 assembly elections before the big battle next year. Not only for Congress, but for the entire opposition it’s a do-or-die battle. That is the reason why Karnataka is critical and has far reaching implications beyond it’s borders.
The disqualification of Rahul Gandhi from the parliament and the long detention of Manish Sisodia seem to have made both parties little more humble. The issue of caste census and reservation have put major political parties on the same page with them lunching a blue print to carry out nationwide campaign to increase their foot print to counter the ruling party’s Brahamastra of hindutva.
A victory in Karnataka would certainly provide an impetus to that road map, besides opening the tap of funds from the country’s Silicon valley state after they lost the economic powerhouse of Maharashtra.
The Karnataka government is perceived to be thoroughly incompetent and a most corrupt government the country has ever seen. It is also brazenly communal. The State Contractors Association charge of 40% kickbacks in public projects is proof of the level of corruption in administration. If Hijab, Azan and chant of Hanuman Chalisa can overcome the ‘40% Sarkara’, it only means that demagoguery can absorb public anger to any level. It will further dip the capacity of the opposition to find its resurgence.
In ‘Amrit Kaal’ time for the BJP, Karnataka is a southern laboratory to validate what it had been doing in the Hindi heartland. Though the ruling party never got a mandate of the people in Karnataka, they managed power through undemocratic method of ‘operation kamala’.
They now seek to legitimize not only the dubious ‘operation kamala’ but the invisibility of the miracle man in a progressive southern state, to enter the southern belt beyond the Vindhyas. The ruling party must be hoping that the communal waves from coastal Karnataka flood the main land.
Karnataka has the capacity to lay the foundation for reclaiming our republic. Whether the opposition shall loose the momentum to the chants of ‘Jai Banjrangbali’ or Karnataka stands up to challenge the political hegemony will be known this weekend.
(The writer is a practicing advocate and a political thinker)